In the Blogosphere, R. Brough Turner is one of the bloggers whom I respect very, very and very highly. He is SVP & CTO of NMS Communications and he writes in his own blog called Communications. Mr. Turner is an excellent expert on mobile technology and if you are somehow related to this field or you have any interest then I would with all my heart recommend you to his blog (http://blogs.nmss.com/communications/) and I am sure you will enjoy it and find some kind of utility too. Whenever, I write anything related to mobile technology of South Asia, Mr. Turner is the first person to discuss about it and on more than one occasion I experienced that he is much more informed than me about the mobile phone industry of South Asia. Last week, I sent him some interview questions through email and I found the reply today.
The interview is too big to post in one entry. So, I am posting in two entries.
Enjoy the interview:
My answers include a mixture of technology, business and economics so let me preface this by saying that I am not an economist by training. I started as an electrical engineer, became an entrepreneur and then got interested in the economics of telecommunications and developing economies. What I know of economics is self-taught. Of course while economics has its own set of terms, the mathematics, problems of experimental design and means of distinguishing causation from correlation are common with other sciences.
The most interesting conclusion to emerge from multiple economic studies over many countries and many years of data is the strong productivity benefit of investment in telecommunications. Investment in telecom does more to increase per-capita GDP (or roughly, the average income per person) than investment in electricity, roads or even education. I've written on this here & here.
It's also become clear that the biggest obstacle to growth in teledensity is public policy. Luckily, there is increasing agreement on what policies foster growth in telecommunications and agencies like the World Bank and the ITU are spreading the word.
SouthAsiaBiz: How would you evaluate the present condition of the telecom industry in South Asia industry?
R. Brough Turner : I'm optimistic. While teledensities are still low compared to Europe or the US, telecom is spreading rapidly in several countries and at a good rate in several others. When neighboring countries prosper, it increases the pressure on governments in less successful countries to make needed policy changes, so the long term outlook is good.
Malaysia already has a mobile teledensity well over 60, admittedly with a per-capita GDP several times that of its neighbors (except Singapore). As a result of policy changes in 2003 & 2004, mobile phone adoption in Pakistan is soaring - it now leads the world on a percentage growth per year basis. Teledensity in Bangladesh has also been increasing at a good clip and Bangladesh, perhaps because of its high population density, appears to have achieved more complete geographical coverage than its neighbors. While the growth rate in India in percentage terms is not as high as Pakistan or Bangladesh, the absolute numbers are enormous.
My principal disappointment is in the rate at which telecommunications is reaching rural areas. I'm particularly aware of this issue as I spent some time in study before speaking on a panel about ICT in rural India at Globalcomm India in February 2006. Again, it appears to be a policy problem. Rural teledensity and rural access to Internet connectivity is highly visible to politicians and so rural ICT gets the "benefit" of government programs - programs which frequently end up legislating technical solutions thus setting back exactly what they had hoped to help. Despite these problems, mobile phone technologies that also provide Internet access are expanding into rural areas, as coverage becomes a competitive issue between mobile phone operators.
SouthAsiaBiz: Which countries do you think have the highest potential in the mobile phone sector here?
R. Brough Turner : There's a clear potential, in every country, for every adult to have a mobile phone. The cost to provide service continues to fall as a byproduct of Moore's law and telephony deployments foster economic growth in turn making telephony more affordable. So it's a matter of time, and the elimination of self-defeating policies.
Over the next three to five years, India is the biggest revenue opportunity. On the other hand, if current growth rates continue, Pakistan's teledensity will outstrip all but Malaysia and Singapore within just a few years.
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